Estimating Future Costs of CO2 Capture Systems Using Historical Experience Curves
نویسندگان
چکیده
Reductions in the cost of technologies as a result of learning-by-doing, R&D investments and other factors have been observed over many decades. This study uses historical experience curves as the basis for estimating future cost trends in CO2 capture technologies applied to four types of electric power systems: pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with postcombustion CO2 capture; coal-based integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants with precombustion capture; and coal-fired oxyfuel combustion for a new PC plants. We assess the rate of cost reductions achieved by other process technologies in the past, and by analogy with capture plant components estimate future cost reductions that might be achieved by power plants employing CO2 capture. Effects of uncertainties in key parameters on projected cost reductions also are evaluated via sensitivity analysis.
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